Watchdog warns of mounting global pressures as UK reshapes its approach to aid

19 May 2026

• Independent Commission for Aid Impact highlights huge challenges facing global development amid conflict, climate change and aid budgets falling by 23.1% worldwide, as the UK hosts major conference.
• Donors are increasingly looking to use scarce ODA to mobilise private finance, but results have been mixed, as poorest countries bear the brunt of funding gaps.
• Armed conflict is at its highest level since the Second World War, driven by deadly violence in Ukraine, Sudan and the Middle East.

The UK is reforming its development policy against a hugely challenging global backdrop driven by conflict, climate change and economic turmoil, according to a new report from the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI).

As the Global Partnerships Conference on the future of international development begins in London today (Tuesday 19 May), the UK aid watchdog sets out its assessment of the global context and warns that the UK’s new ‘partnership approach’ to development must address these pressures through clear, measurable commitments if it is to deliver lasting impact.

It notes that 2025 saw the largest real-terms fall of official development assistance (ODA) on record, as the UK and 10 other major donors – together accounting for three-quarters of global aid – announced budget reductions.

This comes at a time of acute global need, with global armed conflict reaching historic highs, and climate shocks and economic instability driving humanitarian emergencies.

Development progress has also worryingly stalled, with only a third of the 137 UN Sustainable Development Goal targets on track or making even moderate progress. Many have stagnated (17%) or gone backwards (18%).

As the UK looks to reform its approach to development cooperation, moving from ‘donor to investor’ while prioritising fragile and conflict-affected states for traditional aid spending, ICAI sets out some key questions that warrant further scrutiny, including how the UK will demonstrate value for money in an era of constrained resources and rising global need.

Jillian Popkins, ICAI’s Chief Commissioner, said: 

“Our report paints a troubling picture of a world where maximising the impact of development cooperation has never been more critical. Aid funding is falling, conflict is increasing, and climate pressures are intensifying, all at a time of acute global need.

“Against this difficult backdrop, we are looking for the UK to be explicit about the outcomes it intends to deliver for the world’s poorest, and how success will be measured. ICAI will continue to provide independent, evidence-based scrutiny to support Parliament and help ensure every pound of the shrinking aid budget delivers maximum impact.”

Major challenges highlighted in today’s report include:

• Global official development assistance fell by $50 billion (23%) in 2025 and is projected to fall further to levels last seen a decade ago.
• Only 28% of humanitarian need was met in 2025. Of the 300 million people assessed as needing assistance only 88.2 million were covered by the UN Global Appeal and, even then, funding fell short by $3 billion.
• Conflict is at its worst since the Second World War, with one in ten people worldwide now living in close proximity to armed conflict, a seven-fold increase since 2010. Attacks on schools in conflict zones rose by 44% in the past year.
• 117 million people are forcibly displaced, with the total doubling in a decade. This includes around 50 million refugees displaced outside their home country, of which 66% have been away from their home country for more than five years.
• At the pace of current progress, ending gender-based violence and achieving equality for women and girls would take another 100 years. A quarter of countries report a backlash against women’s rights.
• For the first time in 20 years, the world has fewer democracies than autocracies. Just 20% of the global population live in countries rated as fully “free”, down from 46% two decades ago.
• Total climate finance reached $1.9 trillion in 2023, against an estimated need of $6.3 trillion. The most climate-vulnerable fragile states receive only 10% of international climate finance.
• Donors are increasingly using scarce ODA to mobilise private investment with mixed results, as the majority of funds (88%) have flowed to middle-income countries rather than the poorest, where financing gaps remain largest.

In 2025, the UK government placed ‘partnerships’ at the centre of its new approach to development, aiming to move “from an aid donor to an investor” and increase the sharing of UK expertise with partner countries. Development Minister Baroness Chapman described the approach during a visit to Ghana in September 2025, saying it was “typical of the UK’s new modernised approach to international development – one where we invest in and work with countries, as partners”. The UK government is hoping to showcase this approach to the international community and sector at the Global Partnerships Conference (19-20 May), co-hosted by South Africa.

ICAI has previously reported how the amount of ODA spent domestically on supporting refugees and asylum seekers has exacerbated funding challenges, diverting aid away from overseas priorities. Its March 2026 report on the UK’s management of the ODA target found that £2.8 billion was spent on hosting refugees and asylum seekers in the UK in 2024, £1 billion more than on humanitarian aid in a year that saw severe crises including in Gaza and Sudan.

At the time, ICAI noted that independent scrutiny will be imperative in coming years to ensure that the UK is clear about what it is committing to deliver through its new partnership approach. With the aid budget shrinking and global humanitarian need at a historic high, ICAI stresses that ambition needs to be matched with transparency, so that the UK’s development cooperation drives meaningful improvements to value for money and delivers lasting impact.